'Light at the end of equity tunnel'-spun2

'Light at the conclusion of equity tunnel'
The short-lived market euphoria within the Finance Minister's announcement of deferring General Anti Avoidance Rules (GARR) and the fact that it's not been withdrawn, in support of delay,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], has established concern regarding how the markets would behave.
Within an interview to Business Line,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Mr Dinesh Thakkar, Chairman Managing Director,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Angel Broking, Mumbai, sees light at the conclusion from the equity tunnel and exudes optimism that the Sensex may rise close to 22,000 level by March next. Excerpts:
The Government must shed the growing perception of policy inertia. It has to accelerate mining and land acquisition Bills and welcome more FDI, especially in areas such as aviation, retail and insurance. Infrastructure is really a perennial area where accelerating execution will do the economy an enormous amount of good.
Just how much levels market will go down further? Do you consider only FII inflow would resurrect the markets,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]?
FII inflows do play a huge role. But look at what we should need,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], just about $20-25 billion annually that's a really small share from the global equity pie; so, I am certain that we'll soon see better FII inflows too,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], considering that when compared with other countries,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], we have better fundamentals. Equities happen to be the top performing asset class over a longer timeframe, giving more than 15 per cent CAGR returns.
The Government has only delay GAAR not rolled it back. It is only a few of the short-term inflows that could need to re-evaluate whether they will be impacted or otherwise the small print on that's still awaited. Hence, it is not clear if a few of the short-term inflows may get impacted eventually during the period of the coming year.
But,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], let's not forget that we are living inside a competitive environment. I don't think our Government would do anything impractical that will materially slow down foreign fund inflows. However, whatever tax regimes emerge, they'll hopefully be at par with other emerging countries.
How do you want the Indian investors to tailor their investment decisions during this year and post-GAAR enforcement?
Indian markets are once more trading cheap,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], following the sharp rally in January, which many people missed out. I believe the markets will appear to factors such as inflation,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], monsoons, crude prices and Government action for direction.
At present, the outlook for monsoon is positive, so that is one positive thing. I'd continue to look in the inflation index, because, if that throws up a positive surprise, it could supply the necessary headroom for interest rates to come down more significantly,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and lay the platform for GDP and earnings growth to pick up.
Because the markets increasingly discount FY14 earnings too,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], I think the valuations will look reasonably cheap. Simultaneously,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], reducing inflation and rates of interest should enhance the future outlook throughout the second half of FY13, because the outlook for FY14 earnings growth also increases.
I believe a multiple of 15x to FY14 earnings will then become more appropriate,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], which translates into a Sensex target close to 22,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych],000 by the end of March 2013.
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