ramisle's Comments on SEA

ramisle's Comments on SEA,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]
"overall health of the shipping industry" No, it is a measure of the prices paid for short term,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], "Spot" charter in the dry bulk sector only. No tankers of oil,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], no containers of sneakers, no car carriers of,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], well,. cars. Most of the bulk commodities, iron ore,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], coal, grains,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], fertilizers, cement,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], etc. are transported on bulk ships that on term charters of longer periods,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], months and years to a charterer using them for many trips. It's a supply, ( ships ),[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and demand, ( commodities needing to be shipped ), equation. And the vast majority of people in the business feel that the supply will grow at a much larger percentage than even the most optimistic hopes of recovery in demand. And China is already importing well above expectations,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], they can't carry the whole load.
Feb 4 05:33 PMI don't think you want to use the p/book values that are reported on these companies balance sheet. They are based on what the company paid for the ships, minus depreciation. The real value of the ships is much less. Take EXM,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], they claim their fleet of 40 owned ships is worth $2.7 billion. That would average $66 million each, they would be lucky to get half that. A new Cape can be bought for $61 million,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and EXM has many ships that are much older and much smaller. Since they are in breach, then obviously the ship values are not what is stated on their balance sheets. Which is why so many of these companies have sold so much stock lately,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], it's not just to buy new ships, but to pay down debt. Part of those waivers of covenants states that the company cannot buy or sell ships without paying down debt. They have gone from 16 million shares in 2008 to 150 million shares now, and they have filed to sell a total of 350 million to YA Global. Over 500 Bulkers were delivered in 2009,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], over 100 were pushed into 2010, and 1500 are expected to be built in 2010. Many will be pushed into 2011. TBSI has a fleet of ships that is 80% over 20 years old, they haven't scrapped any. EXM has several over 25, and hasn't scrapped any. China has become the largest buyer of older tonnage in the world. The scrap steel price has risen,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], but the BDI is actually high enough to make money, so most companies keep the ships, rather than sell them for $5 million and be forced to pay off the loan. The Breakers have a huge choice of ships to buy,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and old single hull tankers are preferred, and readily available. The Dry Bulk companies would have been better served if the BDI stayed below 1000, that would have forced the older ships to scrap. Vale ,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the largest Iron Ore miner in the world has purchased 20 older Capes and VLOC's over the last year and has on order, 28 new VLOC's, each carries 400,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych],000 dwt. They expect to become self sufficient,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and rarely require the services of independent carriers. Vale has also signed 20 year charters with the largest shippers in Japan and China. POSCO,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the second largest steelmaker in the world has also been buying it's own ships, in order to have control of its costs.
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